It is one of the earliest habits in the IT industry to do car analogies in order to explain some computer characteristics or behaviour. Probably because cars were more widespread that computers and easier to understand what is happening inside a car than inside a computer. One of the earliest mems was the „If cars were like computers“. But now that cars are becoming more and more similar to a smartphone on wheels, maybe it would be interesting to do the reverse and try to predict the development of car industry in analogy to computer industry.
When asked which car manufacturer resembles a computer model, the answer would be undoubtedly that Tesla is resembling Apple. It is the same type of hype, fanboyism, Teslas CEO Musk is at least as eccentric and visionary as Apples former CEO Steve Jobs and Tesla’s cars are different than the rest of the industry for good and for bad. Similarities are also regarding the target group. Both Tesla and Apple have a limited market share and they are fine with it since they are targeting middle class with sufficient money to buy something pricy, but not exclusive, just enough to impress the neighbours and colleagues. So a Think Different, but not too much, using Linux or cars running on hydrogen would be too nerdy and inconvenient. Both companies are also masters in platform economy, Apple has App store and iTunes store, while Tesla has SuperCharger stations and Musk is also thinking loud about an App Store just for Tesla users. The stock prices kind of confirm that Tesla is not seen by investors as an automotive company, but its valuation is more closer to the platform companies like Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon.
So while the situation with Tesla is more or less clear, what does it mean for the rest of car maker industry? Anology with IT teaches us, that usually there are two systems competing, be is vi vs. Emacs, Amiga vs. Atari, Windows vs. MacOS, Android vs. iPhone. Where is the biggest competitor to Tesla, which would dominate the rest of market?
Currently there is no sign of such a competitor, car market is very fragmented, there are dozens heavyweights competing in different market segments and there are no common denominators except the ones which are required by the law. So the situation resembles nineties when there were several companies offering mobile phones, which were not compatible to each other except having a screen, a keyboard, a processor and a modem with standardised communication protocol. There are reports that Android is starting to dominate the car entertainment systems for similar reasons why phone manufacturers were starting using Android, but there is a big zoo of other entertainment systems and underlying operating systems and UIs available and there is no pressing demand to unify. Also solutions like Apple’s CarPlay or Android Auto put the question after importance of car own entertainment system, as its functionality is mostly replaced by these systems, which get better with every annual release of the underlying operating system, which is still not the case for car entertainment system.
The very moment of unification of mobile phone market happened when Apple has introduced iPhone and showed the undeniable superiority of its system compared to everything else on the market. Market leaders like Nokia became burning platforms and have never recovered. As a counterweight to iPhone and its iOS the phone manufacturers needed something similar and Google offered Android to them, the rest is history. What could be such moment for the car industry?
I think this will be the moment, when Tesla will announce the achievement of Level 5 autonomous driving (I put aside the question, if it will ever be achieved and the laws will be adapted, if not, then all this discussion is purely theoretical). But if this is the case, then all other car manufacturers will be in despair for a similar solution and then they will take the system, which is available and promises to deliver similar results than Tesla’s. Which system will it be? I don’t know, but most likely there will be only one system, which then will form the counterweight to what Tesla is offering. This system will certainly ask for some hardware requirements like certain type of processors, sensors, communication channels and the car manufacturer will quickly standardise on them (the ones, which will not be quick will share Nokias destiny). Then we will have similar situation as in mobile phone market right now, two systems, one controlled by just one manufacturer, while the other used by all other manufacturers, which will compete for differentiation in other areas.
